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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Copper (CU2611) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Inventory Turning Point and Expanding Net Short Positions | 2026-10-17

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Copper CU2611 [10-16 settlement] 109450, 5-day -0.23%, 20-day -2.09%, price trading at the 62.7% percentile of the 20-day channel 106650–111770; on 10-15 a long bearish candle broke below the prior low, with a weak rebound. On the drivers side, SHFE warrants have accumulated for three consecutive days, [10-16] 36386 tons, daily change +1453 tons (+4.16%), with the previous two days' changes at +11476 tons and +14050 tons; LME [10-15] 226600 tons, daily change -1400 tons, cumulative -29300 tons over the last 20 periods, showing a divergence between international destocking and Chinese restocking. Top-20 seats [10-16] net short 29471 lots, expanding by 5777 lots versus the prior day; main contract open interest 176859 lots, daily change -12140 lots; the rise on reduced open interest is characterized as short covering rather than active buying. International managed money net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks, [10-06] net 61134 lots, Δ-16924 lots. The copper/gold ratio at 1.57 sits at the 92.46% percentile over one year, with growth expectations fully priced. Invalidation condition: daily close firmly above 110190 (R1) and a break above 111770 (20-day high).