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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Inventory Destocking Plus Rising Open Interest Driving Gains | 2026-10-17

Directional conclusion: Rebar (RB2701) is slightly bullish. The core logic has three parts: First, the [10-16 settlement] price of 3072 yuan/ton sits at the 23.3% percentile of the 20-day channel of 3053–3143, near the lower bound, and the [10-16 night session] closed at 3086, up +0.46% versus settlement, indicating buying support at low levels; second, CISA data show late-September inventories at key steel enterprises were 15.65 million tons, down -8.4% month-on-month, with supply-side destocking supporting prices; third, on [10-16] main-contract open interest was 1,740,703 lots (+8,449), main-contract notional holdings were 5.351 billion yuan (daily change +260 million yuan), showing a rising-open-interest rally with active longs, and the top-20 seats held a net long of 11,042 lots. The risk is that social inventory rose +2.7% month-on-month in early October, so demand validation is still insufficient. Direction-invalidation conditions: daily close below 3053 (20-day low), or fixed-asset investment on 10-19 and GDP data on 10-20 coming in significantly below expectations. On the upside, watch a break above 3085.67 (R1), which would open the way to 3100 (20-day high).