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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 5D slide, S1 55.954 invalidation | 2026-10-17

Bearish on silver: the COMEX December silver contract (SIZ26) settled at 57.305 [settle 2026-10-16], down 6.13% over five sessions and 14.66% over 20 days, with price pinned at the 14th percentile of the 20-day channel (55.56–68.105). The sell-off is orderly rather than capitulatory — the 10-14 flush to 55.56 was bought back to 57.156, and the 10-16 settle holds above pivot S1 at 55.954 — but managed-money net length has already halved from 13,309 to 7,528 contracts between 09-22 and 10-06, and the trend proxy (CTA 62) still leans long, leaving room for further liquidation. Physical flows are mildly supportive: SHFE warrants fell 12,335 kg to 1,402,972 kg [2026-10-16] and SLV added 1.25% over 20 sessions, while COMEX registered stock is flat at 103.15 Moz [2026-10-14] — not enough to offset the technical damage. The gold/silver ratio at 72.96 sits in the 88th percentile of one year, confirming silver is lagging. Invalidation of the bearish view: a daily close above R1 58.024, which would target R2 58.892; the downside path targets S2 54.752 on a break of S1. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so no Asia comparison is made.