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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D -10%, S1 476.08 under threat | 2026-10-17

Bearish on CBOT December corn (ZCZ26.CBT): the 2026-10-16 settle of 474.25 caps a 10.09% 20-day slide, price sits at the 5th percentile of its 470.25–544.5 20-day channel, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 479.75, down 3.62% w/w after a 509.75 high. The five settled bars into 2026-10-16 made lower highs (484.25, 488.25, 484, 482.75, 481) and the 2026-10-16 session broke the prior day's 477.5 low, printing 473. Structure, momentum and a -10.59% roll yield all point lower while price holds under pivot P 479.42. The call invalidates on a daily close back above R1 481.33, which would reclaim the 2026-10-15 settle and stall the lower-high sequence. Downside, a break of S2 474.17 targets the 20-day low 470.25, roughly 0.34×ATR14 (11.48) beyond; a loss of that opens the 52-week low 416.25. Seasonality (median -2.2%, up 5 of 15 years) and a 25.9% RV20 argue for selling strength into rallies rather than chasing. Risk-reward favours shorts while 479.42 caps; a close above 481.33 flips the view.