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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=X26) Deep Dive | Bearish: 1262.25 20-day low broken, S2 1252.5 in play | 2026-10-17

Bearish on Soybeans (ZS=X26, the CBOT November contract referenced by ZS=F): the 2026-10-16 settle of 1261.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1262.25, confirming a fresh leg lower in a market already down 2.38% over five sessions and 3.24% over twenty. The trigger for this issue is that break, and price now sits at the 10th percentile of the 20-day channel (1253.25–1331.
5) with the pivot P at 1267.5 overhead. The fundamental offset is a strong US crush margin of 2.6721 USD/bu (2026-10-15), at the 73rd 1-year and 91st 3-year percentile, but that demand support has not arrested the slide. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.75, -1.15%, roll yield -6.93%), which is a carry cost for longs rather than a signal of prompt tightness. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is mildly supportive (mean +1%, median +1.15%, 8 of 15 up years) but is context only against a small sample and a worst case of -8.35%. The call is bearish while price holds below the 1267.5 pivot; a daily close back above 1277.25 (the 2026-10-14 settle) invalidates the short and reopens the 1287.75 area. First target is S2 at 1252.5, roughly 0.45 ATR below the 1261.25 settle.