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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 660.5 settle breaks 20-day low 661.5 | 2026-10-17

Bearish CBOT wheat: the 2026-10-16 settle at 660.5 broke below the prior 20-day low of 661.5, confirming a fresh leg lower in a market already down 7.53% over 20 sessions. Three reasons: (1) price action is one-sided — five settled bars in a row with lower highs, the 20-day channel at 656.25–730 with price at the 6th percentile, and the 10-16 bar printing the 20-day low 656.25 intraday before settling at 660.5; (2) the term structure is in contango (M1–M2 −14.25, −2.08%, roll yield −8.33%), so longs pay a roll cost while nearby supply is not tight; (3) seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean −1.01%, median −2.13%, up only 5 of 15 years). ATR14 is 16.04 (2.43% of price, full daily range) with RV20 at 20.9%, so a daily move of roughly 16 points is normal noise and the invalidation must sit beyond it: a daily close back above pivot P 672.75, and decisively above R1 678.25, would negate the break. Downside, a break below the 20-day low 656.25 targets S2 659 first and then the 640 area. The current week (from 2026-10-12) is unfinished; only the last completed week (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09, C 671, −1.76% w/w) counts as a closed bar. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday as of the 2026-10-16 session.