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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

DCE Egg Main Continuous (DCE.JD) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bearish: Open-Interest Decline Drags Price Toward 20-Day Low | 2026-10-17

Directional conclusion: slightly bearish. Egg Main Continuous (active contract JD2612) [10-16 settlement] 3351, [10-16 close] 3332, -0.98% vs. previous settlement, -7.85% over 5 days, -13.27% over 20 days; price sits at the 7.7% percentile of the 20-day range (3284–3908), approaching the 20-day low of 3284. On the drivers side, [10-16 settlement] main open interest 280221 lots (-11852), notional open interest 9.34 billion yuan (daily change -395 million yuan), showing a pattern of decline on falling open interest with longs exiting; RV20 25.6% corresponds to ATR14 86.79 (2.6% intraday full range), with rising volatility accompanying the downtrend. Technically, [10-16 close] has broken below pivot P 3351.67; S1 3268.33 lies 63.7 points from the close, about 0.73×ATR, forming the next target; overhead R1 3419.33 lies 87.3 points from the close, about 1.0×ATR, serving as the reversal confirmation level. Invalidation conditions: daily close back above 3419.33 (R1) accompanied by rising open interest, or an unexpectedly tight signal on the spot side.