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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 3.116 Settle Below Pivot, Short Into 2.912 | 2026-10-17

We are bearish on NYMEX January natural gas (NGZ26) with invalidation on a daily close back above the 3.2513 pivot P. The 2026-10-16 settle printed 3.116, down 3.71% on the day (settle) and 3.23% over five sessions (settle), after the 10-15 contract roll into the January month; the move is a genuine break of the 3.1797 S1 support, not a roll artifact, since the roll occurred two sessions earlier. Price sits at the 42.2% position of the 2.912–3.395 twenty-day channel, with ATR14 at 0.1373 (4.41% of price, full daily range) and RV20 at 47.5% — realized vol is subdued, so the downside break carries more signal than noise. Managed money was net short 144,537 contracts as of 2026-10-06, the most bearish reading in four weeks, and the curve is in steep contango (M1-M2 -0.297, -8.41%) with a -100.88% roll yield, meaning longs pay heavy carry. Seasonality is the only offset: the next 20 sessions average +7.92% (median +0.88%, up 9 of 15 years), so we size for a counter-seasonal short with a tight stop. A daily close above 3.2513 invalidates; a break below 3.1233 targets 2.912, the 20-day low.