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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG: 10-16 settle 101.41 broke prior 20D high 98.32 | 2026-10-18

We are LONG WTI crude (CL=F, executing contract CLZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close back below pivot P 96.62. The 2026-10-16 settle of 101.41 broke above the prior 20-day high of 98.32, completing a five-session advance from 93.74 (10-12 close) to 101.41 — a +10.41% 5D move (settle) that leaves price at the 97th percentile of its 20-day range (86.86–101.
9). Fundamentals corroborate: EIA crude stocks of 415,577 kb (2026-10-09) sit 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average after an 8,557 kb weekly draw, distillate is 11.7% below average, and the curve is in backwardation (M1-M2 2.39, 2.41%, roll yield 28.96%) — prompt tightness, not a paper squeeze. Refining is running hot at 93.5% utilization with the 3:2:1 crack at 57.77 USD/bbl (1Y percentile 88.49%), sustaining crude demand. Positioning is the key divergence: managed-money net length has fallen for four straight CFTC weeks to 40,574 contracts (2026-10-13) even as price rose, and netPct sits at the 15th 3-year percentile (as-of 2026-10-06) — the rally is not crowded, leaving room for shorts to cover. The 10-16 intraday print of 101.9 (intraday) tags R2 101.36; a daily close above it opens 105.37 (R2 + 1×ATR 4.01). Risk: OVX at 50.74 vs RV20 36.9% (IV−RV +13.8 pts) means options pay up for event risk, and the next-20-session seasonal is negative (mean -2.43%).