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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE Eggs Main Continuous (DCE.JD) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Down 7.85% in 5 Days, Approaching 20-Day Low | 2026-10-18

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Eggs main continuous (DCE.JD, active contract JD2612) [10-16 settlement] 3351, [10-16 close] 3332, -0.98% vs prior settlement; -7.85% over 5 days, -13.27% over 20 days. Price has fallen to the 7.7th percentile of the 20-day range 3284–3908, approaching the 20-day low of 3284. On the drivers, the futures decline came with main open interest of 280221 lots (-11852) and notional open interest of RMB 9.34 billion, down RMB 0.395 billion on the day, showing a falling-price, falling-open-interest pattern with longs exiting. RV20 at 25.6% and ATR14 at 86.79 (2.6% of price) indicate rising volatility and an unsettled downward pace. Technically, [10-16 close] 3332 has broken below pivot P 3351.67; S1 3268.33 is about 0.73×ATR from the close and is a valid downside target; overhead R1 3419.33 is about 1.0×ATR from the close and forms rebound resistance. Invalidation conditions: daily close back above pivot P 3351.67 and further recovery of R1 3419.33, or an unexpectedly tight signal from the spot side.