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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-18

We are long COMEX December gold (GCZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below pivot support 4128.1. The market has consolidated after a 5.51% 20-day drawdown (settle 10-16), holding the 4091.2 20-day low and the 4095 low of 10-14, while managed-money net length has already been cut from 127,389 to 107,089 contracts over four weeks — positioning is cleaner even though netPct still sits at the 90.8 crowding percentile as of 2026-10-06. Physical and ETF flows are mildly supportive: COMEX registered stock is flat at 14.82 Moz (as of 10-15) after a 0.34 Moz 20-report draw, SHFE warrants rose only 900 kg to 116,928 kg (10-16), and GLD added 0.67% over 20 sessions. Implied volatility is cheap at the 12th percentile with GVZ 22.58 versus RV20 18.3%, so upside optionality is inexpensive into a China-data-heavy week. Cross-asset ratios show gold lagging copper (1Y 92.46%) and oil (1Y 100%) and silver lagging gold (gold/silver 72.96, 1Y 87.7%). A daily close below 4128.1, then 4086.1, turns the view neutral-to-bearish; above 4204.9 opens 4239.
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