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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | LONG HGZ26: LME drawdown vs 15th-pctile price | 2026-10-18

We are LONG COMEX December copper (HGZ26), with the thesis invalidated by a daily close below 6.508 (pivot S1). The prior session settled at 6.5735 [settle 10-16], up 0.26% on the day but down 1.77% over five sessions and 1.76% over twenty, leaving price at the 15th percentile of its 20-day channel (6.509–6.9285) — a weak tape against a tightening physical backdrop. LME warehouse stock fell 1,175 MT d/d to 225,425 MT [10-16] and is down 29,675 MT over twenty reports, while COMEX registered stock is flat at 470,900 short tons [10-15]; SHFE warrants rose 4.16% to 36,386 MT, the one soft data point. Supply headlines are mixed: Peru's August output fell 5% y/y to 230,676 MT, but Antofagasta's Centinela union reached a labor deal, removing one strike premium. Positioning has already cooled — managed-money net length fell from 82,522 (09-22) to 61,058 (10-13), netPct to 20.1% at a 61.66 crowding percentile — so the long is not crowded. The copper/gold ratio at 1.57 sits at the 92nd 1-year percentile, confirming pro-growth leadership. Near-term risk is event-driven: China IP, retail sales, FAI and GDP print this week, and VIX at 19.99 (82nd percentile) argues for size discipline. A daily close below 6.508 invalidates; a break above 6.6215 (pivot R1) targets 6.6865 (R2).