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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

RSS3=F Deep Dive | Bullish: 20D uptrend intact, buy dips toward 442 | 2026-10-18

We are bullish RSS3=F while the market holds above the S1 pivot at 442.0; a daily close below 442.0 invalidates the call. The prior session settled at 450.1 [settle 2026-10-16], up 1.08% on the day, and the 20-day change of +4.31% confirms the medium-term uptrend remains the dominant feature despite a -0.86% 5-day pullback. Price sits at the 52.2% position of the 20-day channel (430.3–468.
2), mid-range rather than extended, with the 20-day high of 468.2 [2026-10-13] as the upside reference and the 20-day low of 430.3 as the deeper support. ATR14 is 8.21, about 1.82% of price, so a one-standard daily move is roughly 8 points; realized volatility of 18.9% is contained. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 454, up 1% week-on-week, and the current week is unfinished. The five settled sessions show a clear lower-high sequence from 468.2 to 455.0 before the 10-16 rebound, so momentum is cooling, not broken. Fundamentally, no inventory, rig, ETF, crush or crack data exists for this soft-commodity issue, so the call rests on price structure and macro transmission: DXY at 101.84 and the 10-year at 5.1% [2026-10-16] frame the cost of carry. The week-ahead China data (IP, retail sales, GDP, LPR) is the next catalyst. Upside: a break above R1 451.8 targets R2 458.3, about 0.8 ATR beyond; downside: a break below S1 442.0 targets S2 438.
7.