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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE Copper (CU2611) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: LME Inventory Down, SHFE Up; Seat Net Shorts Expand | 2026-10-18

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. SHFE Copper CU2611 [10-16 settlement] 109450, 5-day -0.23%, 20-day -2.09%, price at the 62.7% percentile of the 20-day channel 106650–111770, 20-day volatility RV20 at 16.1%, ATR14 at 1140.71 (1.04%). On drivers, LME inventory [10-16] 225,425 tonnes, with a cumulative drawdown of 29,675 tonnes over the last 20 periods, provides support in the international market, but SHFE warrants [10-16] 36,386 tonnes rose by 1,453 tonnes (+4.16%) in a single day, and top-20 seats held 341,518 longs vs 370,989 shorts, with net shorts of 29,471 contracts widening by 5,777 contracts from the prior day, indicating bearish positioning from Chinese capital. The main contract rose on falling open interest (short covering), with notional open interest at 971.5 billion yuan, a daily change of -66.69 billion yuan; the rally lacks confirmation from incremental longs. China's tax-adjusted premium over LME is +1.28% (-0.03% five days ago), and the average Yangshan bill of lading price is 130 USD/tonne, with the internal-external price ratio turning positive. Invalidation conditions: a daily close above 111100 (below the 20-day high of 111770), or a sustained large LME inventory build combined with continued sharp increases in SHFE warrants.