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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Rising on Increased Open Interest, Inventory Destocking | 2026-10-18

Direction slightly bullish. Rebar RB2701 was quoted at 3072 yuan/ton on [10-16 settlement], closed the night session at 3086 yuan/ton, up +0.46% versus settlement; main contract open interest 1740703 lots (+8449 lots), showing a pattern of active long-side position building; top 20 seats net long 11042 lots. On fundamentals, late-September inventories at key steel enterprises were 15.65 million tons, down -8.4% month-on-month, the fastest destocking pace recently; early-October social inventory was 9.39 million tons, up +2.7% month-on-month, a mild post-holiday build. Technically, price sits at the 23.3% percentile of the 20-day channel 3053–3143, close to pivot P 3069.33, with support at S1 3054.67 holding below. Driving logic: inventory destocking → spot price support → open-interest-driven rise on the futures → after breaking R1 3085.67, upside target 3100. Invalidation condition: daily close below S1 3054.67.