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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 57.305 settle below P 56.822, S1 55.954 next | 2026-10-18

Bearish silver: the 2026-10-16 settle of 57.305 sits below pivot P 56.822 and inside the lower 13.9% of the 20-day channel, with 5D -6.13% and 20D -14.66% confirming a downtrend, not a base. Three reasons: (1) price failed to hold the 10-14 low of 55.56 as support and the 10-16 recovery to 57.305 stalled under R1 58.024, leaving the path open to S1 55.954 and S2 54.752; (2) managed-money net length has fallen for three straight CFTC weeks (13,309 to 5,619 contracts, as-of 2026-10-13) while price slid, a liquidation pattern that typically extends; (3) the gold/silver ratio at 72.96 (1Y percentile 87.7%) shows silver lagging gold, and the term structure is in contango with a -4.42% roll yield, a carry drag on longs. Invalidation: a daily close above R2 58.892 (about 0.8 ATR above the settle) would negate the bearish call. COMEX registered inventory is 103.12 Moz as of 2026-10-15, up 5.83 Moz over 20 reports, and SLV holdings rose 1.22% over 20 sessions to 497,650,797 oz — supply is not tight. Seasonality is mildly negative (mean -0.32%, median -0.97%, up 7 of 15 years). No Asia print was captured for this issue.