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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Short: 20D channel breakdown, 470.25 is the line | 2026-10-18

We are short CBOT December corn (ZCZ26.CBT), with the trade invalidated on a daily close back above the 479.42 pivot. The prior session settled at 474.25 [settle 10-16], down 0.78% on the day, with the 5-day change at -1.15% and the 20-day change at -10.09% (settle basis). Price sits at the 5th percentile of its 20-day channel of 470.25-544.5, only 4 points above the channel floor, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 479.75, down 3.62% week-on-week after a 509.75 high. ATR14 is 11.48, roughly 2.42% of price as a full daily range, and RV20 is 25.9%, so realized movement remains elevated even as the trend decays. The curve is in contango with M1-M2 at -12.25 (-2.52%) and a roll yield of -10.07%, a persistent carry drag on longs. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is negative (median -2.09%, up only 6 of 15 years). The 10-16 bar traded 473-481 and settled at the low, confirming distribution. A daily close below 470.25 opens 458.77; a daily close above 479.42 invalidates the short.