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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 1261.25 settle breaks 20D low 1262.25 | 2026-10-18

Bearish: the 2026-10-16 settle of 1261.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1262.25, and the 2026-10-16 session closed at the bottom of its own 1253.25–1265.75 range, leaving the March-2026 contract (ZSX26.CBT) with no technical support until S2 at 1252.
5. The trend is already negative — 5D -2.38% and 20D -3.24% (settle) — and price sits at the 10th percentile of the 20-day channel (1253.25–1331.
5), i.e. within roughly 8 points of the channel floor. Realized volatility is compressed at RV20 14.5% with ATR14 of 19.3 (1.53% of price, full daily range), so a channel break would travel fast relative to recent noise. Fundamentals offer no offset: the US crush margin of 2.628 USD/bu (2026-10-16) is at the 69th 1Y percentile (90th 3Y), a processor-friendly spread that keeps crush demand running but does not tighten bean supply. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.5, -1.14%, roll yield -6.82%), a carry cost for longs. Seasonality (mean +2.18%, median +2.92%, 9 of 15 up) is the only counterweight and is a small-sample context, not a thesis. Invalidation: a daily close back above pivot P 1267.5, then R1 1272.75, would negate the break; until then the path of least resistance is toward S2 1252.5 and the 20-day low 1253.25.