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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 660.5 Settle Breaks 20D Low 661.5 | 2026-10-18

Bearish: CBOT wheat (ZWZ26.CBT) settled at 660.5 on 2026-10-16, breaking below the prior 20-day low of 661.5 and confirming the downtrend; the call invalidates only on a daily close back above pivot P 672.75. The settle-based snapshot shows 5D -1.56% and 20D -7.53% (settle), with the 20-day channel at 656.25–730 and price at the 6th percentile of that range. ATR14 is 16.04 (2.43% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 20.9%, so realized volatility is elevated relative to the seasonal norm while the 10-16 bar carved the channel low. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 671, down 1.76% w/w, after a 706.5 high; the current week is unfinished and no weekly-close conclusion is drawn from it. The curve is in contango (M1-M2 -14.5, -2.15%, roll yield -8.59%), a carry cost for longs. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -0.87%, median -2.5%, up 5 of 15 years). A daily close below S2 659 targets 643; a daily close above P 672.75 flips the call. No Asia print was available for this issue.