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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: Short Nov26 below 3.1233 | 2026-10-18

Bearish NYMEX natural gas: the November 2026 contract (NGZ26.NYM) settled at 3.116 on 2026-10-16, down 3.71% on the session, and the front month has rolled from the October to the November leg as of 2026-10-15. Three reasons support the short: first, price action is deteriorating — the 2026-10-16 bar printed a 3.062–3.229 range and closed at its low, breaking the 3.1797 S1 pivot, with the 5-day change at -3.23% (settle) even as the 20-day change holds +2.4%, a momentum rollover inside a 2.912–3.395 twenty-day channel at the 42.2% position. Second, the term structure is in steep contango at M1-M2 -0.27 (-7.97%) with a roll yield of -95.69%, so longs pay heavily to carry. Third, positioning shows managed money net short -126,481 contracts as of 2026-10-13, with shorts adding 18,056 week over week while open interest fell to 1,741,163 — active selling, not covering. Seasonality (mean +7.15% over the next 20 sessions, 10 of 15 years up) is the main counterweight and caps conviction. Invalidation: a daily close above 3.3077 (R1) would negate the short; a break below 3.1233 (S2) targets 2.997, the 2026-10-09 weekly low, roughly 1.2× ATR beyond S2. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so no Asia comparison is made.