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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Seat Net Longs Expand, Short-Covering Repair | 2026-10-18

Directional conclusion: slightly bullish. Shanghai Gold 2612 [10-16 settlement] reported at 898.8 yuan/gram, 10-16 day session closed at 901.82 (+1.36%), night session closed at 898.62 (-0.02%), still down 5.78% over 20 days and at the 27.1% percentile of the 20-day channel, a repair rally after an oversold move. Core rationale: top-20 seats net long 168,988 lots, expanding by 9,557 lots versus the prior day; long positions 230,505 lots (+3,709), short positions 61,517 lots (-566); the main contract rose on a 621-lot open-interest decline, characterized as short covering; COMEX registered gold 14.82 Moz unchanged, SHFE warrants 116,928 kilograms (+900), inventories neutral; GLD up 0.67% over 20 days; GVZ 22.58 at the 12% percentile of one year, IV-RV +4.3 volatility points, options pay a limited price for event risk. Invalidation conditions: daily close below S1 883.8 (below the 20-day low of 881.82), or holding above R1 901.42 and then breaking above 908.7 (the 10-13 high).