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Data as of: 2026-10-16 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Shanghai Copper (CU2611) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: LME Inventory Down, SHFE Inventory Up, Seat Net Shorts Expanding | 2026-10-18

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Copper CU2611 [10-16 settlement] 109450, 5-day -0.23%, 20-day -2.09%, price at the 62.7% percentile of the 20-day channel 106650–111770, 20-day volatility RV20 at 16.1%, ATR14 at 1140.71 (1.04%). On the drivers, LME inventory [10-16] 225,425 tonnes, with a cumulative drawdown of 29,675 tonnes over the last 20 periods, provides support to the international market, but SHFE warrants [10-16] 36,386 tonnes rose by 1,453 tonnes (+4.16%) in a single day, and the top-20 seats held 341,518 lots long versus 370,989 lots short, with net shorts of 29,471 lots expanding by 5,777 lots from the previous day, indicating bearish Chinese funding. The main contract rose on falling open interest (short covering), with notional open interest at 971.5 billion yuan, a daily change of -66.69 billion yuan, and the rally lacks confirmation from incremental longs. The China tax-adjusted premium over LME is +1.28% (5 days ago -0.03%), the average Yangshan bill of lading price is 130 USD/tonne, and the domestic-international price ratio has turned positive. Invalidation conditions: a daily close above 111100 (below the 20-day high of 111770), or a sustained large LME inventory build combined with continued sharp increases in SHFE warrants.