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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: 20D breakout, backwardated, oil/gold at 1Y extreme | 2026-10-19

We are LONG Brent (ICE Brent December, BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the 106.52 pivot S1. The 2026-10-16 settle at 109.86 broke decisively above the prior 20-day high of 107.3, completing a +4.91% week and leaving price at the 99th percentile of the 20-day range. The term structure is in backwardation (M1-M2 +3.04, +2.85%) with a 34.15% roll yield, confirming prompt tightness rather than a purely financial bid. Fundamentals corroborate: EIA crude stocks at 415,577 kb are 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average after an 8,557 kb draw, distillate is 11.7% below, and refinery utilization is 93.5%. The 3:2:1 crack at $57.77/bbl signals strong product pull. Positioning risk is elevated — OVX at 50.74 (1Y 48th percentile) sits well above RV20 of 34.2%, so options are paying for event risk into Chinese data. Oil/gold at 0.0243 is at its 100th 1Y percentile, an extreme that argues for scaling rather than chasing. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-19 (06:50) Brent was 108.78, -0.98% vs settle, holding above S1. We buy dips toward 106.52-108.26 with upside to 111.6/113.34; a daily close below 106.52 invalidates.