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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Long CLZ26: 20D breakout, backwardated, pullback to pivot | 2026-10-19

We are long WTI crude (CLZ26) with the position invalidated on a daily close below 98.21 (NEXT S1). The 2026-10-16 settle of 101.41 broke above the prior 20-day high of 98.32, completing a +10.41% five-day advance and a +10.41% weekly gain in the last completed bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16). Fundamentals corroborate: EIA crude stocks at 415,577 kb sit 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average after an 8,557 kb weekly draw, distillate is 11.7% below average, and the curve is in backwardation (M1-M2 2.39, 2.41%). The 3:2:1 crack at 57.77 USD/bbl (88.49% 1Y percentile) keeps refinery utilization at 93.5% and crude demand firm. Positioning is not crowded: managed-money net length is at the 10.91% three-year percentile after four weeks of liquidation, so the rally has room to run without a positioning washout. The term structure pays longs a 28.96% annualized roll yield. Risk is real: the Asia bar on 2026-10-19 at 06:50 printed 98.22, down 3.15% versus settle and back at NEXT S1, and OVX at 50.74 sits 13.8 vol points above RV20 of 36.9%, so options are pricing event risk into the China data calendar. We treat the Asia dip as a test of the breakout level, not a reversal, while price holds 98.21; a daily close below it targets 95 (NEXT S2).