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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | LONG: 20D downtrend stalls, 91.6 settle reclaims P | 2026-10-19

We are LONG FEF=F with invalidation on a daily close below 90.433 (NEXT S2). The 2026-10-16 settle of 91.6 [settle 10-16] snapped a four-session slide with a +1.78% (settle) gain, reclaiming the NEXT pivot 91.483 and leaving the 20-day downtrend (-5.66% over 20 sessions) stalled at the 89.7 20-day low. Three reasons support the long: first, the 2026-10-16 bar (H 91.95 / L 90.9 / C 91.
6) was the widest and strongest of the last five settled sessions, a clear demand response at the channel floor; second, the 20-day channel 89.7–97.1 leaves 6.0% of upside to the 20-day high versus only 2.1% to the 20-day low, an asymmetric payoff at the 25.7% channel position; third, realized vol is compressed at RV20 9.3% with ATR14 0.747 (0.82% of price), so a re-rating needs only a modest expansion. The week of 2026-10-12–10-16 closed at 91.6 (+0.43% w/w) with a 89.7 low, holding the 52-week floor. Risk: a daily close below 90.433 negates the bounce and targets 89.7; upside watch is 92.067 (NEXT R1), then 92.533 (NEXT R2). No Asia print was available for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday-labelled or prior-session settles.