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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 4181.1 settle, short into 4211.83 | 2026-10-19

Bearish COMEX December gold (GCZ26). The 2026-10-16 settle of 4181.1 sits 5.51% below its 20-day level and below the 4189.67 pivot, with managed-money net length still at the 90th percentile of a three-year window after four consecutive weekly cuts. Three reasons for the short: (1) price structure is deteriorating — the 20-day range is 4091.2–4422.1 with position at only 27.2%, and the last completed week (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 4181.1, down 0.83% w/w after a 4095 low; (2) positioning is crowded on the long side — netPct 27.02% at the 90th percentile as of 2026-10-13, so liquidation risk is asymmetric; (3) carry is punitive — M1-M2 at -19 (-0.45%) and roll yield -5.43% tax longs, while the 10-year at 5.1% and DXY 101.83 raise the opportunity cost. Invalidation: a daily close above 4211.83 (NEXT R1). Asia 2026-10-19 07:00 printed 4197.2, +0.39% vs settle, inside the 4176.72–4199.5 intraday range and still below R1. Seasonality is a headwind: the next 20 sessions average -0.75% with only 5 of 15 years up. A break below 4158.93 targets 4136.77, then 4091.2 (20-day low).