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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Long: China data to confirm 6.53 floor | 2026-10-19

Long COMEX December copper (HGZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below 6.5303 (settle basis). The metal settled at 6.5735 on 2026-10-16, down 1.77% over five sessions and 1.76% over twenty, but the pullback stalled in the lower fifth of the 20-day channel (6.509–6.9285, position 15.4%) and the last completed week printed a 6.5245 low that held above the 20-day floor. Physical balances are tightening where it matters: LME warehouse stock fell 1,175 MT d/d to 225,425 MT on 2026-10-16 and is down 29,675 MT over twenty reports, while COMEX registered stock was flat at 470,900 short tons on 2026-10-15. Managed-money net length has been cut from 82,522 to 61,058 contracts over four weeks, with netPct falling from 27.36% to 19.46% and crowding from the 69th to the 60th percentile — positioning is cleaner, not stretched. The copper/gold ratio at 1.57 sits in the 92nd percentile of the past year, keeping pro-growth exposure rich and arguing for disciplined entries. Today's China activity prints (IP forecast 5.4% y/y, FAI -7.3% ytd, GDP 4.4% q/y, all BJT 10:00) are the immediate catalyst; a downside surprise through 6.5303 flips the call. ATR14 is 0.1217 (1.85% of price, full daily range), so a stop near 6.44 sits roughly one ATR below the S1 pivot.