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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Short: Bearish Reversal Below 3.1357 | 2026-10-19

We are bearish on NYMEX January natural gas (NGZ26, continuous NG=F) with the call invalidated on a daily close back above the NEXT pivot P at 3.1357. The [settle 10-16] print of 3.116 fell 3.71% (settle) and sits 3.23% lower over five sessions (settle), having failed just under the 20-day high of 3.395 and broken the S1 of the prior RETRO ladder at 3.1797. ATR14 is 0.1373, roughly 4.41% of price, so the market is in a high-volatility regime where a single session can erase a week of positioning. Managed money is net short at -126,481 contracts as of 2026-10-13, yet the short base is still being rebuilt, which argues for continuation rather than a squeeze. The curve is in steep contango with M1-M2 at -0.27 (-7.97%) and roll yield at -95.69%, a heavy carry drag on longs. Seasonality is the main counterweight: the next 20 sessions have averaged +8.24% with 10 of 15 years up. We treat that as context, not a signal, and require a daily close above 3.1357 to abandon the short. Initial downside objective is 2.9687 (NEXT S2), roughly 1.08× ATR below the pivot.