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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Long: 20D oversold, ETF inflows, weak COT vs price | 2026-10-19

Bullish silver (COMEX December SI, SIZ26) with invalidation on a daily settle below 56.388 (NEXT S2). The call rests on three pillars: price sits at the 14th percentile of its 20-day channel after a -14.66% 20-day drawdown, with the 2026-10-14 session holding the 55.56 low and two sessions stabilizing; physical and ETF demand are absorbing metal — COMEX registered stocks at 103.12 Moz are up 5.83 Moz over 20 reports yet SHFE warrants fell 12,335 kg on 2026-10-16 and SLV holdings rose 1.22% over 20 sessions; and managed-money net length has been cut from 13,309 to 5,619 contracts since 2026-09-22, leaving positioning un-crowded at a 33.74 three-year percentile. The 57.479 Asia print (2026-10-19 07:00, +0.3% vs settle) is stabilizing above NEXT pivot 57.493 territory. A daily settle below 56.388 invalidates the long and targets 55.56; upside requires reclaiming 57.952, then 58.598. The gold/silver ratio at 72.96 (1Y 88th percentile) confirms silver's lag and offers mean-reversion torque if metals firm. Seasonality is a mild headwind (next-20-session mean -0.5%, 6 of 15 up years). IV-RV at +1.5 vol points keeps optionality modestly priced, not a barrier. Risk-reward favors longs while 56.388 holds on a settle basis.