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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Short: 20D slide, 5.4% channel position, break 471.17 targets 468.08 | 2026-10-19

We are short CBOT December corn (ZCZ26.CBT) with invalidation on a daily settle above 479.17 (NEXT R1). The prior session settled at 474.25 [settle 2026-10-16], down 0.78% on the day and 10.09% over 20 sessions, leaving price at the 5th percentile of its 470.25–544.5 20-day channel and just 1.3% above the 52-week low of 416.25. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) printed 480/488.25/473/474.25, a 1.15% weekly decline with a close near the low — distribution, not stabilization. ATR14 is 11.48 (2.42% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 25.9%, so realized movement remains elevated while the market grinds lower. The NEXT pivot ladder (from the 2026-10-16 H/L/C) puts P at 476.08, R1 479.17, S1 471.17 and S2 468.08; the settle sits below P, keeping the near-term path of least resistance down. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -0.5%, median -1.92%, up only 6 of 15 years). The curve is in contango (M1-M2 -12.25, -2.52%), a carry cost for longs. A daily settle above 479.17 invalidates; a break below 471.17 targets 468.08, roughly 0.28 ATR beyond.