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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=X26) Deep Dive | Short: 20-day low 1262.25 broken, rally into 1272.58 to fade | 2026-10-19

Bearish on Soybeans (CBOT November ZSX26): the 2026-10-16 settle of 1261.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 1262.25, confirming the downtrend that has produced a 5D change of -2.38% and a 20D change of -3.24% (settle). Three reasons: first, price sits at the 10.2 percentile of the 20-day channel (1253.25-1331.
5) after five consecutive lower daily closes; second, the term structure is in contango with M1-M2 at -14.5 (-1.14%) and a roll yield of -6.82%, so longs pay a heavy carry cost while the front month drifts lower; third, the crush margin at 2.628 USD/bu (2026-10-16) is at the 89.54 3-year percentile, a level at which processors are well covered and the margin is more likely to compress than to expand. The bias reverses on a daily close back above the NEXT pivot R1 of 1266.92, with a full invalidation on a daily close above 1272.58 (NEXT R2); while below, a break of the 20-day low at 1253.25 targets 1247.58 (NEXT S2). No Asia print was captured for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday-labelled. Seasonality (next 20 sessions, mean +1.93%, up 9 of 15 years) is a small-sample offset, not a thesis. Risk metrics (DD52w 11.58%, Sharpe30 -2.1808) confirm the prevailing downtrend.