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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Short: 20-day low 661.5 broken, CBOT December ZWZ26 | 2026-10-19

Bearish. The CBOT December wheat contract (ZWZ26, referenced via ZW=F) settled at 660.5 on 2026-10-16, breaking below the prior 20-day low of 661.5 and confirming a downside break of the 20-day channel (656.25–730), with price at the 6th percentile of that range. The 20-day change of -7.53% (settle) and the 5-day change of -1.56% (settle) show persistent selling, and the last completed week (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 660.5, down 1.56% w/w after failing twice at 681. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.5, -2.15%, roll yield -8.59%), a carry cost for longs that rewards short exposure. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -0.98%, median -2.82%, up only 4 of 15 years). ATR14 is 16.04 (2.43% of price, full daily range), so a stop above the next pivot R1 at 668.42 sits roughly half an ATR above the settle; a tighter invalidation is a daily close back above 672.75 (retro pivot P). Downside targets are S1 654.42 and S2 648.33 from the NEXT ladder. The bias flips only on a daily close above 672.75.