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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Night Session Short Covering, Stabilizing Near 20-Day Low Zone | 2026-10-19

Direction conclusion: Slightly bullish. Iron ore I2701 settled at 674 yuan/ton on [10-16 settlement], down 7.94% over 20 days, at the 9.1st percentile of the 20-day range of 667–727.5, near the 20-day low of 667; in the [10-16 night session] it rebounded 1.71% versus settlement to 685.5, with the main contract rising on reduced open interest, indicating short covering, and combined with the international market resonance of SGX FEF=F [10-16 settlement] up 1.78% in a single day, short-term technical repair conditions are in place. Core reasons: first, price is already close to the lower edge of the 20-day range, with ATR14 at 10.71 (1.59%), narrowing downside room; second, the night session rebound came with declining open interest, indicating short liquidation rather than new short entries; third, the international-versus-China premium has converged from +7.39% five days ago to +5.64%, releasing some China valuation pressure. Invalidation conditions: daily close below 667 (20-day low), or SGX FEF=F below 89.7 (its 20-day low). On the upside, watch a break above 679.17 (next pivot R1) for a move toward 686 (night session high).