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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

DCE Egg Main Continuous (DCE.JD) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Position-cutting decline in the lower range of the past 20 days | 2026-10-19

Direction conclusion: Bearish. Egg Main Continuous (DCE.JD, active contract JD2612) [10-16 settlement] at 3351, [10-16 close] 3332 (-0.98% vs previous settlement), 5-day -7.85%, 20-day -13.27%; price has fallen to the 7.7th percentile of the 20-day channel 3284–3908, near the 20-day low of 3284. On drivers, futures fell consecutively from 10-14 to 10-16; [week of 10-12] weekly close at 3332, weekly change -7.85%, with a bearish technical alignment. On positioning, main-force open interest 280221 lots (-11852), notional open interest 9.34 billion yuan (daily change -395 million yuan), indicating a decline on position-cutting and longs exiting. Core logic: weak prices combined with active long reduction; rebounds lack incremental capital, so treat short-term as bearish. Invalidation conditions: daily close firmly above the next session pivot R1 3377.33, or an effective breakout above 3419.33 ([10-15 review pivot] R1) accompanied by rising open interest.