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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHFE Copper (CU2611) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias: Inventory Destocking and High Copper-Gold Ratio Resonance | 2026-10-19

Directional conclusion: SHFE Copper (CU2611) is biased to the upside. The core logic lies in continued international market inventory destocking and rising Yangshan premium jointly confirming spot resilience, combined with growth-expectation repair reflected by the copper-gold ratio at the 92.46th percentile over one year. Technically, the [10-16 settlement] at 109450 sits at the 62.7th percentile of the 20-day channel; the next pivot P is 109566.67, with R1 above at 110533.33. Fund positioning shows a short-covering pattern of rising prices on falling open interest; top-20 seats net short 29471 lots, widening by 5777 lots versus the prior day, while COT managed-money net longs have declined for three consecutive weeks but CTA remains at a high of 62. Invalidation conditions: daily close below 108893.33 (S1), or the international market breaking below 6.5303.