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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-16 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Rebar (RB2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Moderately Bullish: Rising on Increased Open Interest Testing 3084 | 2026-10-19

Directional conclusion: Moderately bullish. Rebar RB2701 settled at 3072 yuan/ton (+0.26%) on [10-16 settlement], night session closed at 3086 (+0.46% vs settlement), main contract open interest 1740703 lots up 8449 lots, notional open interest 53.51 billion yuan up 2.6 billion yuan, showing a pattern of active long-side position building. Technically, price is at the 23.3% percentile of the 20-day channel 3053–3143, near the next pivot P 3072.67, with R1 3084.33 above. Fundamentals show inventory divergence: early-October social inventory 9.39 million tons, up 2.7% month-on-month; late-September key steelmaker inventory 15.65 million tons, down 8.4% month-on-month, with steelmaker destocking outpacing social accumulation. On the funding side, top-20 seats are net long 11042 lots but narrowed by 4189 lots versus the prior day, a hidden concern within the moderately bullish stance. Invalidation condition: daily close below 3053 (20-day low).