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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: 20D breakout, backwardated, crack-supported | 2026-10-20

Brent is a LONG: the 2026-10-16 settle of 109.86 broke decisively above the prior 20-day high of 107.3, completing a +4.91% week and leaving price at the 99th percentile of its 20-day range. Three reasons support the call. First, the technical breakout is confirmed by structure: the 20-day channel spans 93.68–110, and the settle closed within 0.14 of the top while the NEXT pivot ladder (from the 10-16 H/L/C) places first resistance at 111.6 and second at 113.34, giving defined upside room above the 108.26 pivot. Second, the physical complex is tight: EIA crude stocks of 415,577 kb (2026-10-09) sit 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average after an 8,557 kb weekly draw, distillate is 11.7% below average, and the curve is in backwardation with M1-M2 at 3.04 (2.85%) and a 34.15% roll yield — prompt tightness, not a contango carry drag. Third, the 3:2:1 crack at 54.58 $/bbl (2026-10-19) with 93.5% refinery utilization keeps crude demand bid. The bias is invalidated by a daily close below the NEXT S1 pivot of 106.52, which would put the 105.23/104.07 zone back in play. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-20 (06:45) Brent last printed 109.3, down 0.51% versus settle, an intraday pullback inside the breakout, not a reversal. ATR14 of 4.05 (3.68% of price) frames the expected daily range.