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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG: 20D breakout, backwardation, thin length | 2026-10-20

We are LONG WTI (CLZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below 100.54 (pivot S1, NEXT ladder from the 2026-10-19 H/L/C). The 2026-10-19 settle of 103.66 broke above the prior 20-day high of 101.9, capping a 5D gain of +10.58% and 20D gain of +12.22% (settle). The term structure is in backwardation (M1-M2 2.39, 2.41%), a prompt-tightness signal, and the 3:2:1 crack spread of 54.58 USD/bbl (2026-10-19) confirms refiners are paying up for barrels. EIA crude stocks of 415,577 kb (2026-10-09) are -2.5% vs the 5-year same-week average with a 4-week cumulative draw of -7,852 kb. Managed-money net length is only 2.14% of open interest (2026-10-13), a 10.91% 3-year crowding percentile, so the rally is not crowded. The main risk is the Asia session: at 06:50 BJT on 2026-10-20, CL=F printed 98.27, -5.2% vs settle, which would breach S1 if it holds into the US open. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (mean -3.04%, median -5.05%, 4 of 15 up), and IV-RV is +16.8 vol pts, so size modestly and respect the stop.