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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

CZCE Ferrosilicon Main Continuous (CZCE.SM) In-depth Analysis Report | Slightly bearish: declining on reduced open interest, resistance at 5870 | 2026-10-20

Directional conclusion: slightly bearish. Manganese silicon 2701 contract [10-16 settlement] 5824 yuan/ton, 5-day -0.55%, 20-day -1.26%, at the 32.6th percentile of the 20-day channel 5760–5932; [10-16] main contract open interest reduced by 10,583 lots, nominal open interest down 308 million yuan day-on-day to 10.29 billion yuan, indicating a decline on reduced open interest with longs actively exiting; [10-19] night session rebounded to close at 5892, +1.17% versus settlement, but [10-20] day session closed at 5818 with settlement at 5830, so the rebound failed to hold. On drivers, inventory, warehouse receipt and basis data are not provided, so fundamentals can only rely on price and open interest signals; on the macro side, 1-year and 5-year LPR (previous 3%/3.5%) and Q3 GDP are released on 10-20, transmitting to demand expectations for the black complex. Technically, the next pivot P 5833.33, R1 5870.67, S1 5778.67, ATR14 is 67.14 (1.15%). Invalidation condition for the bearish view: if the daily close holds firmly above 5870.67 and approaches the 20-day high of 5932, the slightly bearish logic is invalidated.