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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | LONG — 20D pullback at 27.6% of range, 91.48 pivot holds | 2026-10-20

We are LONG FEF=F, with the call invalidated on a daily close below 91.483 (next-session S1). The setup is a deep but orderly 20-day pullback: the contract settled at 91.7 on 2026-10-19, up 0.11% on the day and 0.82% over five sessions, while the 20-day change of -5.46% leaves price at only the 28th percentile of its 89.7–96.95 20-day channel — a discount entry rather than a breakdown. The 2026-10-16 weekly bar closed at 91.6 (+0.43% w/w) after reclaiming the 89.7 low, and the last two settled sessions printed higher highs at 91.95 with narrowing ranges, evidence that selling pressure is fading. Realized volatility is compressed at RV20 9.4% with ATR14 at 0.728 (0.79% of price), so the risk budget per unit of adverse move is small. Cross-asset signals are constructive: copper/gold at 1.58 sits in the 95th 1-year percentile and oil/gold at 0.0249 at the 100th, both pro-growth configurations consistent with a recovery in industrial demand. The next-session pivot ladder (P 91.717, R1 91.933, S1 91.483) gives tight, objective risk definition. A daily close below 91.483 would negate the recovery structure and expose 90.433; a break above 91.933 opens 92.167. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all live observations are labelled intraday with their as-of time.