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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Rising on Reduced Open Interest Awaits Confirmation, 906.75 Is Key | 2026-10-20

Directional conclusion: Slightly bullish. Shanghai Gold 2612 contract [10-19 settlement] 901.48 yuan/gram, closed at 902.42 yuan/gram (+0.4%); main contract nominal open interest 200.4 billion yuan, down 7.99 billion yuan on the day, a short-covering structure of rising prices on reduced open interest; top 20 seats net long 171,633 lots, up 2,645 lots from the previous day, with seat net longs resonating with the market's open interest decline. Technically [10-19] 20-day range 881.82–955.52, position 28%, ATR14 is 13.47 (1.49%), next pivot P901.91, R1 906.75, S1 897.57; only a firm hold above R1 can open up further upside. Internationally, GC=F [10-19 settlement] 4160.1 USD/oz (-0.5%), 20-day -5.11%, position 21.3%, Asian early session [10-20 07:00] 4155.46 (-0.11%). GVZ implied volatility 22.58, at the 12th percentile over 1 year; IV-RV is +4.4 volatility points, so options pay limited for event risk. Direction invalidation conditions: daily close below 897.57 (S1) and international market below 4140.07 (S1), or a failed breakout falling back below P901.91.