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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish bias: rising open interest with price decline, inventory shifting upward | 2026-10-20

Directional bias is bearish. Rebar RB2701 was quoted at 3080 yuan/ton as of the [10-19 settlement], closing down 0.13% on the day, with a cumulative -0.71% over 5 days and -1.29% over 20 days; the closing price of 3068 is already close to the lower edge of the 20-day channel at 3053, with a channel position of only 17.2%. On the drivers side, social inventory in the first 10 days of October was 9.39 million tons, turning up by 2.7% month-on-month, while inventories of key steel enterprises in late September were 15.65 million tons, down 8.4% month-on-month, indicating inventory is migrating from mill stocks to social stocks; combined with the main contract falling on rising open interest and the top-20 seats' net longs narrowing by 8,751 lots from the previous day to 2,291 lots, both funding and fundamentals are resonating on the weak side. Technically, shorts are actively adding positions, with notional open interest rising to 53.49 billion yuan. The invalidation conditions for the directional view are a daily close firmly above 3087.33, or an effective break below 3053 followed by a quick recovery.