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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 467 settle breaks 20D low 470.25 | 2026-10-20

Bearish: the 2026-10-19 settle of 467 broke below the prior 20-day low of 470.25, confirming the downtrend in CBOT December corn (ZCZ26.CBT); the call invalidates on a daily close back above the NEXT pivot 468.92. The break came with a 1.53% single-session decline (settle) and a 3.31% five-day loss, extending a 14% 20-day drawdown that leaves price at the 2nd percentile of its 20-day channel (465.75–544.
5). The 10-19 bar printed a fresh 20-day low of 465.75, so the market is making lower lows into the harvest window, not basing. The NEXT ladder (from the 2026-10-19 H/L/C) puts S1 at 463.83 and S2 at 460.67, both within one ATR14 of 11.57 (2.48% of price, full daily range), while R1 472.08 and the 470.25 broken level now cap upside. Seasonality is a headwind: the next 20 sessions average -0.73% with only 5 of 15 up years. Term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -12.25, -2.52%, roll yield -10.07%), a persistent carry drag for longs. Realized vol is compressed at RV20 22.7%, so a downside acceleration would be fast relative to recent ranges. Risk metrics corroborate the trend: 52-week drawdown 14.77%, 20-day drawdown 11.92%, Sharpe30 -4.85, VaR95 -1.74%. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday-labelled or prior-session settles.