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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-19 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Short-covering rebound, treat as bullish | 2026-10-20

Direction is bullish. Iron ore I2701 settled at 682.5 yuan/ton (+1.26%) on [10-19 settlement], with open interest down 33,472 lots and notional holdings falling to 41.4 billion yuan, indicating short-covering rather than active long-chasing; the top 20 seats held a net short of 37,594 lots, narrowing by 4,452 lots from the prior day, as shorts exited actively. Technically, the price rebounded from the 29.2% percentile of the 667–720 range on the 20th, reclaiming the next pivot P at 681.33, with resistance at R1 690.
17. Fundamentally, late-September inventories at key steel mills stood at 15.65 million tons, down 8.4% month-on-month, while early-October social inventories were 9.39 million tons, up only 2.7% month-on-month; downstream destocking provides a floor for raw materials. China's tax-adjusted price implies a +7.15% premium over the international market, easing from +7.94% five days earlier. Invalidation condition: daily close below S1 at 673.67.