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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-19 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHFE Copper (CU2611) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Destocking Plus Short Covering | 2026-10-20

Direction conclusion: slightly bullish. SHFE Copper CU2611 [10-19 settlement] 109850 yuan/ton, +0.29% intraday versus previous settlement; main-force open interest down 8883 lots, nominal open interest down 4.875 billion yuan on the day, a short-covering structure of rising price on falling open interest; SHFE warrants [10-19] 35410 tons, down 976 tons on the day (-2.68%), LME inventory [10-16] 225425 tons, cumulative -29675 tons over the last 20 periods, with continued destocking on the inventory side as the core driver. Technically, price sits at the 60.9% percentile of the 20-day channel and above the next pivot P 109773.33; RV20 12.3% is below the international market's 16.2%. Risks: international market COT managed-money net longs have fallen for three consecutive weeks ([10-13] 61058 lots), and the Centinela strike in Chile has ended while BHP and South32 posted higher Q1 copper output, implying marginal supply loosening. Invalidation conditions: daily close below 109396.67 (S1) and the international market below 6.5255.