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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: backwardation + inventory draw, invalidation 107.35 | 2026-10-21

We are LONG Brent (BZZ26.NYM) with the call invalidated on a daily close below the 107.35 pivot S1. The prior session settled at 109.55 [settle 10-19], up 2.72% over five sessions and 13.83% over twenty, with price at the 93rd percentile of its 20-day range. The term structure is in backwardation (M1-M2 3.48, 3.28%), a prompt-tightness signal consistent with EIA crude stocks 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average after an 8,557 kb weekly draw. Refined products are tighter still: distillate 11.7% below the 5-year average, gasoline 4.2% below, with the 3:2:1 crack at 54.44 USD/bbl [2026-10-20]. The 20-day channel is 93.68-110.69; the 10-19 session traded to a 110.69 high, the 52-week high, but settled below it. The NEXT pivot ladder (from 10-19 H/L/C) gives P 109.02, R1 111.22, S1 107.35. ATR14 is 3.98 (3.64% of price), so a break of 107.35 targets 105.15 (S2), roughly 0.5 ATR beyond. Upside: a daily close above 111.22 opens 112.89. Early Asia 2026-10-21 06:40 printed 109.1 (-0.41% vs settle), inside the ladder. Seasonality is a headwind (next 20 sessions mean -2.54%, up 5 of 15 years) but is context only. The single call is LONG; a daily close below 107.35 flips it.