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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG CLZ26 — pullback within uptrend, 98.39 invalidation | 2026-10-21

We are LONG WTI crude (CLZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below 98.39, the NEXT S1 pivot derived from the 2026-10-20 range. The call rests on three pillars: a steep but intact uptrend (settle 101.79 [settle 10-20], 5D +8.13%, 20D +12.45%), a tightening physical balance (crude stocks 415,577 kb as of 2026-10-09, -2.5% vs the 5-year same-week average, with a 4-week cumulative draw of -7,852 kb), and a deeply backwardated curve (M1-M2 5.12, 5.2%) that pays longs to hold. Managed-money net length is only 2.14% of open interest (crowding percentile 10.91 as of 2026-10-13), so the rally is not a crowded trade. The 2026-10-20 session printed a 110.48 high before settling at 101.79 — a wide rejection bar — and early Asian trade on 2026-10-21 (06:50) is at 98.19, -3.54% vs settle, testing S1. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -2.49%, up only 5 of 15 years), and implied vol (OVX 50.22) sits 16.5 points above RV20 (33.7%), so we size for a 4.37 ATR daily range. Above 104.44 (NEXT P) re-opens 107.83; below 98.39 targets 95.