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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: 20-Day Channel Lower Support to Be Tested | 2026-10-21

Directional conclusion: bearish. Iron ore I2701 [10-20 settlement] 681 yuan, 20-day change -3.81%, at the 27.4% percentile of the 20-day channel 667–720, 5-day only +0.66%, rebound momentum limited; night session closed at 679, -0.37% versus day session close, clear sign of longs exiting. SGX FEF=F [10-20 settlement] 91.3 USD, 20-day -5.44%, international market weaker than the Chinese market, China tax-adjusted premium +7.7%, Chinese market relatively expensive. Top 20 seats net short 39,429 lots, widening by 1,835 lots versus the prior day; main nominal position down 250 million yuan on the day, funding side bearish. Core driver is the correction pressure from weak international market and high China premium; invalidation conditions: daily close firmly above 685.83 (next pivot R1) or a break below 667 followed by a failed retest confirmation.