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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Copper (CU2611) In-depth Analysis | Bullish Bias: Inventory Destocking and Domestic-External Resonance, 109833 as Bull-Bear Watershed | 2026-10-21

Bullish bias. Shanghai Copper CU2611 settled at 109190 yuan/ton on [10-20 settlement], down 0.27% intraday, but still up +1.59% over 20 days, trading at the 56.6% percentile of the 20-day range of 106650–111770, with the trend intact. Three core drivers: first, SHFE warrants destocked by 2443 tons in a single day on [10-20] to 32967 tons (-6.9%), with China's visible inventories contracting continuously; second, Yangshan copper premiums rose to 131 USD/ton for bills of lading and averaged 138 USD/ton for warrants on [10-20], indicating a marginal recovery in import demand; third, LME inventories fell by a cumulative 23700 tons over the last 20 periods, pointing to a tight global inventory cycle. Technically, the next pivot P is 109346.67, R1 is 109833.33; a break above R1 targets 110384 (about 0.5×ATR14 = 551 points above R1); invalidation occurs on a daily close below S1 at 109063.33. Main open interest fell by 6923 lots to 161053 lots on [10-20], with a notional value of 882.2 billion yuan, down 37.92 billion yuan on the day—declining on reduced open interest as longs exited, leaving near-term momentum weak but the structure unbroken. The copper-gold ratio stood at 1.59 on [10-20], at the 96.83% percentile over one year, reflecting strong growth expectations.