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データ基準日: 2026-10-20 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish bias: rising open interest on decline, inventory turning | 2026-10-21

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Rebar RB2701 [10-20 settlement] 3069 yuan/ton, down 0.32% intraday, -0.62% over 5 days and -0.81% over 20 days; price sits at the 19.5th percentile of the 20-day channel 3053–3140, near the lower bound. On drivers, early-October social inventory of 9.39 million tons turned up 2.7% month-on-month, while late-September key steelmaker inventories had just drawn down 8.4%; inventory is shifting from mill to social stocks with weak end-user uptake. The main contract fell on rising open interest, with the top 20 seats net short 14,611 lots, widening by 16,902 lots versus the prior day—clear signs of active short entry. Technically, the next pivot P is 3069.67 and S1 is 3062.33; ATR14 is 27 points. If the daily close breaks below 3062, look to 3035. Invalidation condition: daily close firmly above 3077.33 (R1) accompanied by a pullback in open interest.